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Commercial real estate is hoping for a bounce back in 2010. For 2009 though, the year is ending with a 29% decline in space absorption compared with last year, according to the annual year-end report by an reputed real estate consultancy company. The total absorption of commercial space across major Indian cities stood at 26.3 million sq ft in 2009, compared with 37 million sq ft in 2008. This dip was primarily because of a conservative leasing approach by the IT/ITeS sector which accounts for majority of commercial office space taken up (60%) in the country.
But the outlook for the coming year is positive. “With the gradual recovery of the economy, the demand for office space is likely to increase by the second half of 2010,” said by the consultancy. Corporates have been cautious about expansion in 2009, both because of the recession and also falling office space rentals. Across India, there has been about 4.6 million sq ft of pre-commitments for space due to be absorbed over the next two years. Of this, Bangalore alone accounts for 2.7 million sq ft. This indicates the revival of the IT/ITes segment, which is the mainstay in Bangalore. IT companies are starting to get new contracts which is pushing them to commit to new real estate costs.
Most micro-markets across the country witnessed 15-25% decline in rentals in 2009 over last year. The last quarter though has seen rentals stabilising, except in few locations such as Mumbai’s Lower Parel which saw the highest fall in rentals by 40% in the past year. Even Delhi saw a rental decline between 3-26% during the year. Because of an acute over supply situation, Gurgaon is expected to see a further fall in rentals. Though 2009 saw a drop in expected supply, major cities recorded 51.8 million sq ft of new office space supply. With corporates starting to relook at leasing large spaces, this new supply is expected to be absorbed in the coming year. “Clients are starting to talk positive,” he added. Consultancy sees a revival of rentals across all markets.
“Corporates, too, are realising this. This is the right time to buy or lease property as rentals and capital values are still at their lowest,” he said. On the developer’s side, the positive news is that stalled commercial office projects are being restarted. “2009 was a tenants market. In the coming year, things will start to turn.”
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